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Question 6 Forecasting
10 marks – 2 for (a), 2 for (b), 2 for (c) and 4 for (d).
Use Excel QM software to generate your answers to parts a), b) and c). Paste the results, both the answers and the formulas into your Word document. Both should show row and column numbers.
The following data has been collected for the demand for 20 kg bags of potting mix for the Grow-Well Garden Supplies Company.
Year Demand for potting mix (1,000 of bags)
a) Develop a 3 year moving average to forecast sales.
b) Estimate demand with a weighted moving average in which sales in the most recent year are given a weight of 2 and sales in the other 3 years are each given a weight of 1.
c) Develop a trend line for the demand for potting mix.
d) Which of the three methods above, 3 year moving average, a weighted moving average or a trend line would you use. Explain your answer.
This assessment task covers topics 3,4,5,6 and 8: Decision analysis and value of information, simulation, correlation and regression analysis and CVP analysis. Specifically, it seeks to assess your ability to complete the following subject learning outcomes:
• apply decision theory to business situations
• use simulation in complex decisions
• demonstrate understanding of the application of statistical hypothesis testing in regression analysis
• apply CVP analysis to product mix decisions involving single and multiple products
16. A CPI Table for Brisbane is at the bottom of the next page
(a) Suppose a fridge cost $1490 in Brisbane in September 2009 and $790 in September 1980. Over this period, what was the real change in price and does this mean the real price of a fridge has risen or fallen over time? Show your working.
(b) If the average retail price in Brisbane of a Snickers Bar in September 2009 is $1.80, what would have been the price in September 1980 dollars, if the real price has remained unchanged? Show your working
(c) If you were working in Brisbane in September 2009 and had a take-home pay of $800 per week, what would the equivalent nominal take-home pay have been in 1999 to put a person in the same real position? What would the equivalent nominal take-home pay have been in 1989 to put a person in the same real position? Show your working.
Dairy in Australia
Dairy is one of Australia’s most important rural industries, producing about 9.4 billion litres of
milk annually and directly employing approximately 43,000 people. The majority of milk
production occurs on the south-east seaboard in Victoria, New South Wales, and Tasmania.
Australia exports approximately 38 per cent of its milk production which was valued at
$2.2billion in 2014/15. A large proportion of exports are in the form of value-added products
such as cheese, butter, ultra-heat treated milk and milk powders. Australian dairy is exported
around the world.
The industry has struggled to perform over the past five years. Adverse climatic conditions,
fluctuating operating costs, volatile global demand and shifting global prices have presented
challenges for the industry. Changing consumer preferences in the domestic market have also
influenced industry operators, which have been forced to alter their product ranges in
response. Industry revenue is expected to decrease at an annualised 2.7% over the five years
through 2015-16, to total $6.1 billion. Export revenue is also anticipated to decrease over the
period, as plummeting prices from the past two years take their toll. Despite these challenges,
the past five years have not been all bad for the industry
- Assume that when the price paid to farmer-suppliers dropped from $6 every kilogram
of milk solids to just $4.75 a kilogram, equivalent to as little as 35c a litre of milk,
supplies from the farmers reduced by 1%. Calculate the price elasticity of supply for
dairy. Draw relevant Graphs. If the current trend with prices was to continue over a
longer term what changes would you expect? Explain using economic theory and
include relevant graphs.( 5 marks)
- Assume that the industry has now received a substantially large export order to Taiwan
to supply clients in that country from 2017 through to 2020. How will this affect the
supply and price paid to the dairy farmers? Clearly indicate any assumptions you may
make, refer to economic theory and draw relevant graphs to support your answer.(5
- What alternative strategies could Fonterra and Murray Goulburn undertake in regards
to pricing? Show evidence of your research and understanding of Economic Theory (5
- What type of market structure is the market for dairy in which farmers supply the
supermarkets through an intermediary? Explain why with reference to relevant
economic theory. What are characteristics of this market structure? ( 5 marks)
Part B 15 marks
By conducting preliminary research that ensures you have access to relevant countryspecific
economic data, select a country to study the nation’s economic health. Ideally you
may select your country of origin if market and economic data is available for you to conduct
the necessary research online.
Write an essay, not exceeding 750 words that analyses the health of the nation’s
economy. Your analysis should be based on GDP changes and shifts in economy through
the period 2008 to now, relevant key economic indicators including population and
employment, the relationship between key indicators, and relevant global, regional and incountry
events and influences on the nation’s economy. (15 marks)
Part C 5 marks
Do not forget to include a reference list for any sources apart from lectures or tutorials. You
also need to include in-text references. These will count for 5 marks.
A referencing guide is available on the portal under assessments.
A business person is planning to invest in Christmas tree production business in which revenues are expected to generate in year 7. The details of cash flows associated with this project are given in the following table:
Year Activity Amount ($/ha)
0 Purchase land 2000
0 Prepare land and plant trees 1500
1 Weed control 200
2 Thin the stand 300
3 Prune and shape trees 400
7 Net harvest revenue from the sale of mature Christmas trees 7200
Tax Case Study
Case study 1: Capital Gains Tax Fred is a resident who signed a contract to sell his holiday home in the Blue Mountains in August last year. The sale was settled in February this year when Fred received $800,000 from the purchaser. Fred incurred legal fees of $1100 (Inclusive of GST) and real estate agent’s commission of $9,900 (Inclusive of GST) in relation to the sale. Fred purchased the holiday home in March 1987 for $100,000 and paid $2,000in stamp duty on the transfer and $1000 in legal fees. In January 1990, Fred engaged a builder to build a garage on the property for $20,000, Calculate Fred’s net capital gain for the current year. Assume he also has a net capital loss from last year of $10,000 arising from the sale of shares. Would your answer be different if the loss arose from the sale of an antique vase? (max. 1000 words).
Tax Case study
Case study 1: Residence and source Fred, an executive of a British corporation specializing in management consultancy, comes to Australia to set up a branch of his company. Although the length of his stay is not certain, he leases a residence in Melbourne for 12 months. His wife accompanies him on the trip but his teenage sons, having just commenced college, stay in London. Fred rents out the family home. Apart from the absence of his children, Fred’s daily behavior is relatively similar to his behavior before entering Australia. As well as the rent on the UK property, Fred earns interest from investments he has in France. Because of ill health Fred returns to the UK 11 months after arriving in Australia. Requirement Discuss whether Fred is a resident of Australia for taxation purposes. (Maximum 500 words
Law Case study
Students are required to complete a law report case study of Junker v Hepburn  NSWSC 88
In this subject you will often consider common law cases and how they interpret and apply common law principles as well as how they interpret and apply statute law in the study of company law.
In doing this case study you will observe the judges legal reasoning and the application of the doctrine of precedent that you would have studied in Business Law. In addition to this you would have studied terms like “ratio decidendi” and “obiter dictum” and again you may observe the judgement applying these principles.
'Ratio decidendi' means literally 'the reason for the thing having been decided.' This is generally said to be the reason why a case was decided.
'Obiter dictum', this means literally 'a thing said by the way'. 'Obiter' is Latin for 'by the way' or 'incidentally.' A 'dictum' is something which has been said. This refers to other observations which are made by the judge in deciding the case but which were not necessary to decide it
In completing this case study task you will see how statements of law are applied to the facts of the case you are asked to consider. This case study task requires critical and analytical thinking as you need to sift through the different aspects of cases and locate they key elements in them.
In completing this case study task you will learn to apply critical and analytical thinking skills that you need to apply to your study of this subject and to various problem situations you will be asked to consider in research assignments, problem tutorial questions and exams.
In reading the designated case you will also acquire knowledge of certain legal terms and in some instances some key phrases - some legal jargon - and knowledge of what they mean.
Samantha is a high school drama teacher responsible for organising the end-of-year school drama production. This year Samantha wishes to present her own comedy play – ‘Smurfs in Space’. Samantha is responsible for all aspects of the production including costuming, catering and set up. She has been encouraged to access volunteer resources where possible – including the school’s ‘Parents and Friends Association’. Samantha only has two weeks to get it all organised.
Samantha is aware of a 16 year old student - Julie - who has set up her own catering from home project – preparing cakes and sandwiches for school events. Samantha speaks to Julie after class and asks whether she can prepare cakes and sandwiches for 100 people.
Julie says ‘Yes I can. I will need one weeks’ notice and the price/charge will be $5 per person, so $500 in total’. Samantha says ‘I will need to think about it for a day or two.’ Julie says ‘send me a Facebook message if you want me to proceed. I have a Facebook page – Awesome Cakes and Catering – where I take all our orders’. Later that week Samantha sends a text message to Julie’s phone, that says ‘go ahead with the cakes and sandwiches as we discussed’.
Julie uses ingredients out of her parents’ household fridge and cupboard to make the sandwiches and cakes. Julie’s mum Martha asks Julie to pay her back for the ingredients and Julie refuses. Martha contacts Samantha directly and says ‘Julie has used all my ingredients – you need to give me $100 out of the $500 Julie is to be paid to reimburse me’.
Samantha also needs costumes so she looks online and finds a website for ‘Outrageous Costumes’. She sends an email to Dave saying she needs three Smurf space suits, with extra silver and blue. Dave writes an email back saying that he can do this for her – he just needs to know the size of the costumes required. Dave also writes ‘Silver and Blue material is extra expensive. I rarely use it and will have to order it in specially’. Samantha immediately writes back and says ‘please go ahead and order the material – I will provide the measurements the week before the production’. Samantha also writes ‘we don’t have much time to get this all organised’. One week later Dave rings Samantha and leaves her a message, saying he has received the material, and unless he hears back from her, he will go ahead and start making the costumes. Samantha hears the message but ignores it, as a parent from the ‘Parents & Friends Association’ has offered to make the costumes for free. Two days before the school production, Samantha remembers she hasn’t spoken to Dave and rings him up to cancel the order. Dave is upset as he has nearly finished the costumes and will not be able to reuse them.
On the morning of the play Samantha realises she has no-one to assist with setting up. Samantha sends an email out to all parents saying ‘Attention all Parents – we need some volunteers to help set up for tonight’s play. The first 10 parents to arrive at 12.00 pm today to assist with the set up will receive two free tickets to tonight’s performance.’ Will is the older brother of a student who is performing in the play. Will sees the email and decides he wishes to watch the play. Will is amongst the first 10 people to arrive and assists with the setup of the play.
1. Is there an enforceable contract between Samantha and Julie? (6 marks)
2. Assuming there is an enforceable contract between Julie and Samantha, does Samantha need to pay $100 to Julie’s mother Martha? (3 marks)
3. Is promissory estoppel relevant to Samantha’s dispute with Dave from ‘Outrageous Costumes’? (6 marks)
4. Is Will entitled to two free tickets for helping set up for the school play? (5 marks)
Due date: 09-Sep-2016
Return date: 05-Oct-2016
Length: approx 1500-2000 words
Submission method options
Alternative submission method
In April 2016, the Fair Work Ombusman released a report on the findings of this inquiry on the 7 Eleven franchise network. The inquiry was prompted by allegations of systemic non-compliance with federal workplace laws.
Your task in this assignment is to:
• Provide a brief summary of the 7 Eleven inquiry;
• Explain what the failings (gaps) are in the industrial relations system that enabled 7-Eleven to underpay its workers;
• Provide recommendations that will protect the rights of employees from being exploited along similiar lines in the future.
You may find the following links useful:
The “Sombrero” was originally a 45 cover Mexican restaurant in Dubai, UAE. In the first few years of operation, business was doing well and the restaurant was featuring in the major tourist guides and newspapers as a “must visit” restaurant not only for the great cuisine but also for the fantastic décor. As the business picked up the restaurant owner decided to expand, so when the opportunity appeared to acquire the lease of the property next door he did so and expanded the restaurant to a 130 seater. Things seem to be going well and the owner was certain that he would get a good return on his investment. However, the original small team could not cope with the business and the new chefs and servers did not have the rapport that a small team had. Soon the restaurant was faced with problems of stock control especially in the back area. Stock would go amiss quite often and wastage level both in food and beverage had hit an all-time high. Worst of all the management could not identify if the problem was at the bars or the cellars and had no idea as to how to resolve the issue. Some suspected theft whilst others felt it was merely bad management.
They are unaware of exactly how the sales revenue is made up by each component and what margins they make. They have also not seen the need to introduce any systems for controlling stock or purchases, relying instead on their own experience, an annual analysis with their accountant where they look at purchases against revenues.
A brief look at the accounts figures:
Food sales: $250,000 Cost of sales: $170,000
Beverage sales: $130,000 Cost of sales: $70,000
Outdoor catering: $42,000 Cost of sales: $16,000 Assessment Information COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA Copyright Regulations 1969 This material has been reproduced and communicated to you by or on behalf of Kaplan Business School pursuant to Part VB of the Copyright Act 1968 (‘Act’). The material in this communication may be subject to copyright under the Act. Any further reproduction or communication of this material by you may be the subject of copyright protection under the Act. Kaplan Business School is a part of Kaplan Inc., a leading global provider of educational services. Kaplan Business School Pty Ltd ABN 86 098 181 947 is a registered higher education provider CRICOS Provider Code 02426B.
The owner has decided to hire consultants to come up with an effective food and beverage control system that will help alleviate the problem. In his briefing to you he has suggested that money is not a problem.
Your group is to advise the owners on what procedures they should adopt in terms of purchasing, storage, inventory and generally improving the performance of the business.
Prepare a detailed business report of at least 2000 words outlining:
1. What you think are the key issues or potential problem areas with the restaurant in terms of food and beverage control?
2. Procurement process and control systems in the restaurant.
3. Describe the application of quality control principles.
4. Design a food and beverage control system that ensures that the problems are reduced or eliminated.
5. Using the Hospitality Systems concept describe, evaluate and make recommendations for improvement taking into consideration the menu, product flow and facility design.
Working in groups:
Group assessments are a great tool for learning and are used in top universities around the world. Some of the major benefits of group assessments are as follows:
• Promotes communication skills.
• Promotes and rewards teamwork and collaboration.
• Promotes project management skills and interdependence.
• Emphasises the need for accountability.
• Becoming work ready.
For a number of reasons group work may not work well. If this happen within your group you should raise this issue with your Lecturer as early as possible so that steps may be taken to resolve the issue or issues. Please note students may not pass a group assessment if there is insufficient contribution.
Feedback: Comments and a mark will be returned to you within two weeks of submission.
Below is a marking guide, which will be used to provide you with your grade and summary
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